I recently spent a week outside Amsterdam running a training session for Greenpeace's various regional webmasters. In addition to spending time with so many bright, shiny world-changers, my trip offered a few highlights. One, I was able to meet my grandfather's cousin, Heinz Aufrecht, whose family fled from Berlin to the Netherlands in 1934 or 1936, shortly after my grandfather Werner Aufrecht fled to the US. I also caught an Einsturzende Neubauten concert at the Paradiso, very cool former church which is now a nearly perfect music club: great acoustics and two big wraparound balconies providing plenty of seating for those (like me) who would rather not stand jammed in a crowd for hours, peering around tall Dutch (Paradiso) or having drunk people lurch into them (Belly Up in San Diego). Also very cool was that the band started very close to the printed time on the ticket, which essentially never happens in my experience. In fact, what they did was even cooler: around starting time, the lights dimmed partway and roadies came out and turned on the two air compressors on stage. The conversations then competed with the chugging compressors until first one and then the other coughed and stopped, leaving silence and darkness as the band came out on stage ....

Instruments played included: PVC pipes, played with compressed air sprayed into ends or beaten like xylophone keys; spoked metal wheels in conical shapes, struck; kettle drum, drummed; electric guitar and bass, played normally or, once, with a golden vibrating dildo to the strings; synthesizer keyboard and Powerbook; big metal plate, drummed; power drill, applied to metal plate; 10 gallon tin can, e.g. an olive oil can, drummed; five ten-gallon cans, tied together like a cat-o-nine-tails, dragged across the stage and flung overhead; wrenches or tools, rattled and tapped; giant slinky, strummed; metal brick, drgged along metal plate; throat singing; chains and sand, moved around on steel bench; electric grinding tool, applied to steel plate; space blanket, shaken gently; long plastic pipe, blown like a horn; transistor radio, played (possibly a prop); spinning cellopane/plate/cup contraption, function and sound hard to discern; plastic jerrycans, beaten; face and mouth, sprayed with compressed air; pvc pipe, about (10cm x 2m), curved and strung, string beaten to produce tenor-like tone; stage, drummed; metal pipes, arrayed on the stage on bumpers and played by seated band members to produce a hex on a previous manager and record company; various sound control boxes, played with bare feet and used, among other things, to produce loops of previously played sound.

Baseball Prospectus breaks down the 47 free agent contracts signed over the 2004-2005 winter. The math is too complicated to explain without quoting most of the (subscription-only) article; basically they estimated how good the players in the free agent class of 2004-2005 were, and counted how much money they were paid, and then figured out which of those players were underpaid or overpaid, relative to the group. Other adjustments included discounting multi-year contracts by 5% per year and comparing the players to "replacement level" (the quality of player you can get by paying the minimum $316,000/yr salary) instead of to zero.

The three best deals:

1. Guzman, Cristian, signed a 4 yr/$15mil contract. Projected to win 14.7 games. By BP's estimates, underpaid by $17 million.
2. Drew, J.D., 5 years/$40 mil. Worth 29.1 wins, and underpaid by $14mil.
3. Eckstein, David, 3 years/$9 mil. Worth 10.2 wins, so underpaid by $13mil.

The worst deal:

1. Ordonez, Magglio, 5 years/$67 mil. Worth 16.4 wins; overpaid $32 mil.

Dodger fans will be interested to learn that Drew is projected to win more games than Beltre in the next five years, and at a substantial discount. (29.1 wins vs 28.2; $40mil vs $57mil). Overall, the Dodgers were the second most efficient spender in the market (Drew and Kent were both very good deals; Lowe and Perez were both mildly bad deals). The Mariners, Diamondbacks, and especially Tigers overpaid the worst.

Also interesting is that this market put the value of a projected win at $2.14 million, which is double the current estimated value of a win. That is, looking at the revenue and records of the different baseball teams, BP statheads have determined that winning one extra baseball game is worth (other things being equal) a million dollars in gate revenue, TV contracts, etc. Therefore, paying a player up to a million dollars per projected win is good economics. By that measure, almost all of this years free agents were overpaid. Which is not unexpected; baseball players are indentured servents for the first six years of their major-league careers, during which period they are severely underpaid relative to the money they generate for their employers. By limiting free agency to veterans, the owners have ensured that free agents are almost always overpaid.