As you know, part of why I adore baseball is its intersection of statistics, random variation, and human interest give us a mirror to see how humans think. Greg Maddux's good start to the 2006 season is the latest textbook example. Maddux is the second-best pitcher of the last fifty years, behind only Roger Clemens, who himself is behind only 1910s pitcher Walter Johnson for the title of best pitcher ever. However, Maddux is forty, and has been in decline for several years. This season, without any appreciable change in his methodology, his results have been outstanding. So far this season he's the second best pitcher[1], up from roughly average last year.

Naturally, any notable fact requires an explanation. While us Maddux fans—and pretty much every nerd is a Maddux fan, since Maddux is a himself a slightly built thrower without great velocity, who has dominated with pinpoint accuracy and the ability to deceive and outthink most hitters rather than through raw power—would love to hear that he's back to full effect, the nerds have looked at the data. And the data says that Maddux is merely repeating last year's league-average performance, in terms of preventing hitters from hitting the ball, but fewer of the balls put in play have resulted in hits. That's generally not something under the pitcher's control. In other words, Maddux has simply been lucky.[2]

And Maddux himself agrees with this analysis:

... somehow -- and Maddux will swear he doesn't know how -- he's turned the losses of last season into wins.

"If he tells you that [he doesn't know], you gotta believe it. I believe whatever he tells me," Cubs manager Dusty Baker said last weekend in St. Louis. ... And from Maddux himself: "I wish I could explain it. Personally, I'm just getting ready to pitch like I always have. I'm just catching a lot of breaks. Sometimes you catch a lot of breaks in this game, and right now I feel like am."

But that's not satisfactory for baseball writers:

The real truth, or at least a major part of it, is simple: Maddux is in better shape than he's been in years. Maybe ever. After failing to win 15 games in 2005 for the first time since '87, Maddux approached Keith Kleven, a physical therapist in Las Vegas, and asked for help.

Kleven started Maddux on a new workout last November, a couple of months before he normally begins his offseason regimen. The results are speaking for themselves. (Jim Donovan, SI.com)

Random variation is often the best explanation for surprises, but humans seem to have a real problem accepting that. And explanations that include hard work and merit and cause and effect are always comforting. But "shit happens" is far closer to universal truth then you might want to believe.

Notes:

1. Maddux is second in both VORP and RA. VORP means the number of runs he has prevented compared to an average minimum-wage pitcher throwing the same number of innings. RA is simply the number of runs allowed per nine innings pitched. VORP is a cumulative statistic and RA is a rate statistic. The nerds prefer RA to the more familiar "ERA" for esoteric reasons.
2. "He’s benefitting from a very low batting average on balls in play (.192, fifth in MLB among pitchers with at least 15 IP). His peripheral stats don’t support a league-leading anything, and his groundball-to-flyball ratio is the lowest of his career, which is contributing to that BABIP. That he’s given up just one home run and three doubles on 18 fly balls is an accident, and can’t be expected to continue." —In Praise of Maddux, Joe Sheehan, 24 April 2006, Baseballprospectus.com

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