Executive Summary

Dean's introduction

A plug for NUS and LKY.
• After globalization, the world has shrunk literally [? if? and? Joel's note: I sensed a Friedmanism coming up and flinched, missing what exactly he said] not metaphorically.
• A few Blair key achievements not as well known in Singapore.
  • Reformed not only the Labour party but also the economy.
  • Few know that Blair came very close to losing a vote on university fees. He pushed through a fee increase that may have saved universities.
  • Peace in Sierra Leone and Ireland.

Blair

Joke about British media.

Joke about wife being the scholar of the two

There are very few times when you can say that the intervention of one person made a difference in a nation but Lee Kuan Yew is such a person. I managed to get an audience with him many years ago, when I was an opposition MP. Somebody told me he was the guy to meet. I asked him, "tell me what you know about politics," which he did.

Joke about bad predictions and the publisher who turned down Harry Potter.

The two big characteristics of the world today are the sheer pace and scale and scope of change [more or less sic]. As Prime Minister, I was Prime Minister for ten years, you kind of become institutionalized. I never had a mobile phone until the day after I retired in June. I had to learn to do an email. I texted a good friend of mine, not realizing that only my number, not my name, appears, and got a text back, "sorry, but who are you?" I thought, "It's only been 24 hours."

Talking to Clinton about the Asian financial crisis 1997-8. I realized, only a year into my premiership, that the UK economy was going to be affected by something that had nothing to do with the UK.

Kosovo crisis caused problems throughout Europe. Irrespective of what I thought was happening in Britain at that time, this issue was going to affect us as a nation. ... partnership with Clinton, we did act. (Joel's note: I'm not writing everything he says verbatim, but I am typing "Clinton" every time he says it).

What happens in another part of the world can, to a far greater degree than even before, impact right around the world. Different analysis of politics, issues to do with global governance, and the solutions. If you'd asked me six months ago in detail about the subprime market .... I finally got to say just a few months ago, "I don't know". The thing is, as the result of this, right around the world people are worried. The big question being asked by the citizens of this world—I happen to think that globalization is a greater opportunity than problem— ... the reaction to globalization. ... In the UK, every stage of reform is tightly fought over. Indeed I almost lost my job over the university reform. It was necessary as things become increasingly global. Very virulent terrorism, around the world and deeply rooted.

Joel's Note: I just want to shout, why, why were you Bush's lapdog? I'm slightly serious. I really want to speak up. otherwise this whole thing is just a farce. he says the obvious, we clap, nothing happens, we go on. I guess the polite form of the question would be, "had the UK resolutely resisted the call to war in Iraq, what would have been the result?"

He's reciting globalization issues, climate change, coal, price of oil, etc etc. Didn't hear agriculture subsidies mentioned. Energy policy is now right at the center of G8, etc. Just before I ceased being PM, I took two decisions that didn't get a lot of attention. One was a deal with Norway to supply 30% of UK gas. I also, very controversially, agreed to replace the existing nuclear power stations. Those are decisions that wouldn't be on the agenda a few years back.

Immigration. As a result of the pace of change and interdependence, 200 million people are trying to migrate at any given moment around the world. If you took the migrants out of the city of London today, the city would collapse. I think if you look at the challenge of Africa, millions of people dying every year from preventable diseases, wars killing hundreds of thousands, rich in resources but full of poverty, I think that's a challenge for the rest of the world. I'm alarmed at how I can see conflicts in Africa involving some of the extreme forces we see in the rest of the world. The world should invest in improving Africa.

What are the solutions to these? The solutions cannot come through the agency of any one power alone. Open up benefits, not protectionism. Terrorism cannot be resolved simply be security means, but also to persuade those that might be at risk of being recruited to terrorism not to do so. A global view. The challenges are global in nature; the solutions have to be multilateral and global. We have a complete mismatch between the need for such solutions and the capacity to deliver them.

Even the most powerful country in the world cannot force WTO agreements. The ultimately power doesn't lie in military force (re: terrorism); it lies in persueding moderate people in the Islam world not to join the terrorists. But the roots to this are very deep and the answer cannot simply lie in one nation's military force; you can see this in Afghanistan (I think he said).

The G8 today is an important forum but it was absolutely essential that we involved China and India. The biggest challenge is climate change. The world wants to act. There's been a sea change in America. I'll tell you the honest truth (Third time he's used that term) China won't agree to a deal that stops China's growth.

Britain has two strong alliances, one with the US and one with Europe, and we should keep both alive. One part of the media was anti-US, the other anti-Europe, and thanks to my persuasive powers by the end of my term some were anti both.

In the end we're not going to solve these problems without the emerging powers as well as the traditional powers. Some of the solutions aren't going to come from government and multilateral. Some of the most effective campaigns have come from civic groups. Grass roots. Partly because this is something I want to devote a lot of time to myself, but partly because it's of fundamental importance to the world, I don't think we can deal with this outburst of religious extremism unless religions show they can engage. The fact that you celebrate all the main religious festivals in Singapore is interesting; it would be extremely controversial to suggest that they should. (Joel's note: yesterday was Deepavali but I have no idea what that means because I spent the whole day at home writing my negotiation paper so that I could hand it in this morning and come hear Tony Blair speak)

If we want a unifying global governance there must be fairness and justice. One of the reasons I wanted to take this role on of special representative in the Middle East, which most of my friends are skeptical about, is if we want to demonstrate to people in the faith of Islam that we are fair, we must deliver the Palestinians a state.

Peace in Ireland: actually what happened was Ireland became prosperous in the EU; the people of Northern Ireland decided they wanted that prosperity, a new generation impatient with the violence; global influence in solving an unsolvable problem. I also learned about the shrewdness of the Irish—we had the first child born in 10 Downing Street in 150 years; you have to wonder what the other Prime Ministers were doing in there—Irish politician chatting with him about the wonderful thing, new addition, what are you going to call him, lovely. I saw him again months later after my son was born. He had a wonderful suntan. I asked, where did you get it? He said, well, I have to thank you, it was due to that conversation we had a few months ago. The bookmakers were offering very good odds about the name of your child.

Joel's note. Other question to ask: what is your fee for speaking today? Who is paying you?

Joel's note. he converted to Catholicism when he retired. was anglican. allegedly talked to the pope about it. I wonder if he was able to negotiate a special Catholic package for himself. Get the pope to throw in a few indulgences.

Time of talk: about 42 minutes. On to Q&A.

Q: Can you list two or three things G8 has solved? A: there was a $20 billion program of nuclear cleanup after the collapse of the USSR, funded by G8. Very little proliferation has come from former Soviet bloc. Also 2005 Eaglewood summit on Africa. But there's no point in a hundred countries signing a global treaty on climate change if it doesn't include the US and China. I actually think there is a lot we can do around an informal G8 type of mechanism. Can get a lot done with frank meetings without all the bureaucracy attending.

Q: Only one question? "yes." "Please spare me 3?" "you're negotiating? two" "two and a comment." There's intelligence there may be a Tony Blair school of governance. also a question about civil servants or China or openness, I missed the details. A: Not a school, but you're right I think governance is very important. Many good schools already. I agree that there should always be movement towards greater openness.

Q: There's a story that when Bush assumed power you asked Clinton for advice, and he said be his friend. Was that good advice, and what advice would you give the president. A: I think it's a good idea for British PMs to get along with American Presidents, but Clinton did say that. Not a fairweather friend. I am arguing today for a broad agenda; our Western agenda would be far more effective if we were leading the way on climate change, middle east peace, etc. You never ever want a weak American president in the White House, you want someone prepared to be tough when toughness is needed. I noticed several times in the last few years that countries were going to do something but didn't because of a tough person in the White House. I realize defending Bush isn't popular around the world. I don't regret taking the decision to stand shoulder to shoulder with the United States. Thing could have been done differently etc but I stand by my decision. (scattered applause)

Q: How do you reconcile between ?? missed it, and the art of leadership is saying no instead of yes, when yes is easy. A: Thank you for summarizing my speech back to me, you have a future in politics. I learned as a leader you can't please all of the people all of the time. At the end of it I was trying to please some of the people some of the time, but .... Everyone wants more spending on social services and nobody wants to pay more tax. One of the most effective speeches I ever heard in politics was made by a Republic at the 1980 convention to nominate Reagan. This guy got up and said, when did the Democrats ever say no to anybody. "listen to the people", yeah but sometimes they disagree and you have to lead. The time to trust a politician most is when they're telling what you want to hear least.

Q: I'm a reporter from the Straits Times. As the middle east envoy, you said ... the gulf between intentions and abilities. You wrote in an article on values that America is sometimes a difficult friend to have. Can you enlighten us on that. A: I don't think saying the US is a difficult friend to have is a wildly controversial statement. US is the global superpower, it's always going to be difficult to be alongside, but it's always better to be alongside. Whatever criticisms, the basic strengths are still there. Are people trying to get into it or out of it. People are trying to get in, not just because of the economy, because of the constitutional freedoms.

Q: On the case of Iraq, after 1 million displaced, ... are you still as assured of your position today as you were 4 years ago.A: I think I'll disappoint you with my answer, which is that it's good that Saddam is out of power. People say why did you go in there; if they drive us out of Iraq through terrorism, they then drive us out of Afghanistan; if they learn our will is in inverse proportion to theirs, then I tell you we're in for a very very long struggle indeed. It's tragic that many people are dying but we'll never beat them by giving in to it or letting them say we're causing it. They've elected their government and should be allowed to have it.

Q: I'm from Nigeria. You mentioned Africa in your speech. What is your advice for those of us who want to be leaders in Africa?A: The best thing is that, I'm delighted people like you are coming to schools like this, so you can go back and be leaders. One of the basic things we need is non-corrupt government in these countries. People like yourself going back to Nigeria and playing a role in politics ... there is a lot to be done in respect to governance; I sometimes think we would be better off in the Western world focussing less on aid and more on helping with governance.

Q: Do you think too many countries are involved in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict? will it easy as you described in Ireland? A: The problem is those who can help solve it have tended to step back and those who can exploit it have stepped forward. We need the US to step forward and the arab states, and create the two-state solution. The capacity issue for the Palestinians is as important as any other single thing. Negotiating the terms is not impossible; you could put an average group of educated Israelis and educated Palestinians together and get the same agreement worked out. The problem is you work the matrix of security concerns, Palestinian capacity, Israelis lifting restrictions, create a space in which a state can come about. The viability of the Palestinian state to govern itself.

Q: This is a question punted by LSE president. Will you be president of EU? A: we'll move swiftly on, shortage of time you know

Q: Will Europe accept other permanent members on the security council A: If you make the nations more representative, it'll have to happen. we're in a different era today than in the postwar period and we in Europe simply have to accept this.

Q: Something about corruption. unintelligible question. A: answered with other question before.

Q: Leadership: who is going to take it and what kind of leadership will be taken? (sadly, the questioner after asking that verbatim added a bunch more sentences. Finally dean tries to cut him off. Note that the last six or seven questions were asked in sequence and then answered all in one go, which is a good system because it produces a sense of urgency which helps both questioners and speaker get to the point.) A: there will always be a role for hard power but it will always be possible to develop multilateral institutions. I actually learned a lot coming to Singapore for the first time back in the 1990s, this is a remarkable achievement. You were able to go out and forge a country for yourself. Britain needs some of this. we need to work out our place in the new world. we should be proud of our history but not limited by it. The real reason we won that Olympic bid here in Singapore two years ago is, we said London is a multicultural city, we're proud of it, we're not doing you a favor by agreeing to host the Olympics, we actually want you to come and see what we've created. And what you've done here in Singapore, your leverage economically and politically is so much more than it "should be" given the size and population, because you've thought ahead. The role of leaders is to think ahead and think what their place is now and in the future.