http://aufrecht.org/blog/ Joel's Blog OpenACS 5.0 Sat, 05 Jul 2008 05:48:43 GMT http://aufrecht.org/rss-support/images/openacs_logo_rss.gif http://aufrecht.org/blog/ 126 48 http://aufrecht.org/blog/one-entry?entry%5fid=67835 http://aufrecht.org/blog/one-entry?entry%5fid=67835 The Straits Times reports (5 July 2008, p S14) on the Large Hadron Collider about to go into to service: the LHC can pump an energy of 7 teraelectronvolts (Tev) into a proton as it flies around the tunnel. This is roughly the energy of seven mosquitoes in flight. Although this may seem small, a proton is about a trillion times smaller than a mosquito. Sort of. If a mosquito is, generously, a centimeter in size, then it's (1) 1×10?2 m1.65×10?15 m which is a 10?13, or a ten-trillionth. But that's not especially relevant. The essential difference, for purposes of colliding masses, is in mass. And the difference there is (2) 1×10?3 g1.7×10?24 g or about 10?21, which is a billion-trillionth. So squeezing seven Tevs into one proton is more like putting the energy of ten million battleships into one mosquito. Sat, 05 Jul 2008 05:48:43 GMT http://aufrecht.org/blog/one-entry?entry%5fid=67825 http://aufrecht.org/blog/one-entry?entry%5fid=67825 The AP reports that "There are a lot of people with new wealth looking for relaxation and enjoyment," said John Dane III, president of privately owned Trinity Yachts, the largest U.S. builder. These days, the biggest problem at Trinity's shipbuilding yards is having enough workers to handle the 24 custom contracts the company currently is working for the luxury vessels. Meanwhile the local paper reports that "sales for mass market cars may be sluggish but it's boom time for high-end marques" (Straits Times, Life p9, 5 Jul 2008). The class war is going strong, and it's pretty clear who's winning. Sat, 05 Jul 2008 05:24:05 GMT http://aufrecht.org/blog/one-entry?entry%5fid=67822 http://aufrecht.org/blog/one-entry?entry%5fid=67822 Ambassador Patricia Herbold, former mayor, chair of the King County (Seattle) Republican Party, etc, etc, (her husband is, or was, an adjunct professor at LKYSPP, although there was no sign of him this last year) spoke at the National Library about the US election. We're in the "pod" on the top, 16th floor of the library in downtown Singapore, and the view is quite nice. The following text is my paraphrase of the speaker unless otherwise marked. First election without an incumbent President or VP. Lots of young people voting. www.18in08.com. Joel's note: she may be a native speaker, but stilted remarks read off the page with good pronunciation are still stilted remarks. I can't remember the last seminar I attended where the speaker such much of anything interesting or even listenable during the prepared remarks. Turnout is between one and two hundred, very mixed. Perhaps there will be interesting questions. Examples of how things have changed with modern media: Obama's "bitter" remark, Clinton's sniper incident; McCain's alleged, "unsubstantiated" relationship with a lobbyist. What a negative ad is. "These ... have no place in political discourse." Primary and convention schedule. Delegates and superdelegates. "Superdelegates comprise about one fifth [of Democratic delegates]." (Bonus points for using "comprise" correctly.) Superdelegates can change their mind, so his nomination is not actually certain. Republican unpledged delegates comprise about one fifth of Republican delegates. Convention speeches as a precursor to future success. The electoral college. "So what should we look for as we follow this year's exciting election?" (delivered in a deadpan drone). Key groups: working-class males; young, single, college-educated women; latinos; young people. Influence of technology. www.fightthesmears.com. (A halt because somebody's phone is ringing. "Let me start that sentence again.") The macaca video "went viral". She shows a video catching McCain in a contradiction. Then a video about Clinton and sniper fire. A video attacking Obama for being out of touch, which starts with a music clip, "Nigger better dance now." Blogs and Facebook. Q: something about Democrats, Republicans, and Singapore. And something about polls. A: Voter turnout was up in 2006 and I think will be up even higher this year. To answer your first question, if I understand it, voters can vote for a candidate of any party. They used to say the US was 1/3 Democratic, 1/3 Republican, and 1/3 Independent, though I think that has shifted. John McCain is not a far, far right Republican, and I think he will attract some independent voters. Q: What impressed me about Obama is "change". You are telling us all these teennagers were impressed by the internet. Do you think if this Afro-American president wins the election, there will be a change in America? A: It's not easy to answer because what you hear on the campaign trail is designed to appeal to certain voter constituencies. And when you are elected, you have to face the realities of life. Strong Congress, lobbying groups ... you have a more reasonable and prudent eye. Example: Clinton was making some of the same noises about free trade, that it was bad for American, but when he was elected, he was responsible for NAFTA. Q: You talked about young voters, but McCain is old. There is a large senior citizen population in America and most of the developed world. Will they come out and vote for John McCain? Do you believe there's going to be a change in Asia policy if a different party is elected? A: I think the majority of older voters will vote for McCain, not because he's older, but because they tend to be conservative. If elected, I'm sure McCain will not lose focus on this region. Barrack Obama spent some time in Indonesia ... People think we don't pay attention to these region, but it's not true. Our top leaders are spread so thin trying to attend so many meetings and conferences .... We have a very active embassy here, twelve different agencies of the US government, military to military contacts, training sessions, exchange of military personnel. ... Just because a cabinet member does not accept an invitation to a particular event does not mean the US has lost interest in the area. (Sounds like that's not a hypothetical problem) Q: How much support for free trade in Congress? A: I am concerned. The current Congress seems to be more protectionist. I would like to think this is just posturing during the election cycle. Q: do you think Obama will be like JFK, to inspire America again? A: I think he's already inspired a lot of people, especially young people. Q: Which candidate will have a bigger impact on the US trade imbalance? Obama is always emphasizing on withdrawal of troops. Less global influence. If Obama is elected, will US influence as global military police go down? A: I'm not sure I've heard either candidate discuss anything specific with respect to China. Our policy is to encourage China to be a resposible global citizen, which they've been achieving. ... I take issue with your referring to us as military police. We don't go into a country to occupy, we go in to solve a problem. Certainly when you consider the loss of life of our military and the huge financial toll it takes on us, it's not something any of us want to jump into without ... a great deal of thought. McCain would be more inclined to maintain our military posture as it is, but I have no idea what Barrack Obama would do. He's not been in the military; the comments other than with respect to Iraq .... I'll be interested to hear his comments after he visits Iraq. Q: My question relates to certain schools of thought that American society is fundamentally racist. So far Obama has had a fairly smooth ride; now that he goes out into the open, is it possible that people, red necks, racists, will [vote him out] A: I don't know the answer, but if you look at the number of minorities elected in towns, etc, it's hard to argue this is an overriding situation of racism. Yes there are pockets of racism, there are blacks who are racists, but .... with respect to electing an African-American, I don't think that's a problem. I would like to think that our country is past that. Q: I'm curious about that issue of gender. Did it play a role in why Hilary Clinton failed? What do you think is going to happen to the constituency of women that were voting for her? Will they defect to McCain? Do you think Obama's choice of running mate might take this into consideration? A: Most Clinton supporters by November will become Obama supporters. Those who are most irritated may stay home and not vote; I'm not sure that they will switch and not vote for McCain. ... There are people, even in the Democratic party, who just don't like her. They think she's shrill, abrasive, any number of things. She started the campaign with an attitude that it was hers, she didn't have a plan if she didn't win after February 5. She had money problems, problems with her campaign manager. Her husband got irritated on the campaign trail and that was caught on video. That caused the media to decide that Obama was going to be the candidate, and the media focus on Hillary was more on the negative side. I don't think it was ever a gender issue with Hilary. I don't think her experience means that women won't be able to be nominees for the next quarter-century. Q: What will be the major issues in the US political climate in the next several months? A: The economy; surveys show Iraq has moved down, I think because the surge has made progress, but no progress is being made with the economy. Kitchen table types of issue. ... That said, if there is some dramatic event, like another terrorist attack, that will swing things the other way. Sat, 05 Jul 2008 05:19:12 GMT http://aufrecht.org/blog/one-entry?entry%5fid=65763 http://aufrecht.org/blog/one-entry?entry%5fid=65763 Jerald Greenberg, Robert A. Baron, Behavior in Organizations. Chapter 13: Leadership in Organizations The leader is the person with the most power in a group. A leader is non-coercive, goal-directed (Joel's note: I think this one is debatable; if someone can effectively veto any other goals, but puts forth no goals of their own, perhaps they are a leader that breaks this definition or an anti-leader; either way, their role clearly has something to do with leadership), and has followers. A leader, who determines the group mission, is different from a manager, who implements that mission. But this distinction can be blurry, and one person can have both roles. Great person theory says that all leaders tend to share special traits, such as drive, honesty, motivation, self-confidence, intelligence, domain knowledge, creativity, and flexibility. Behavioral analysis of leadership suggests several dimensions. One grid is Autocratic to democratic and permissive to directive. Another is high to low person orientation and high to low production oriented; these are two different axes, and grid training is a technique to move people who are low on one or both to high on both, "9,9". Analysis in terms of followers: the leader-member exchange (LMX) model, which defines "in-groups" and "out-groups"; leaders treat in-group members better. In self-managed teams, a team leader builds trust and teamwork, expands the team's capacity, attempts to create a team identity, exploits (in a positive way) differences between group members, and tries to foresee and influence change. Grassroots leadership empowers people to make decisions. The attributional approach is a theory in which leaders try to understand and change the causes of followers' behavior. It also describes how followers think about leaders' motivations, e.g., the "rally 'round the flag effect" when followers extend additional trust to leaders when the group is in crisis. Charismatic leaders exert special power due to personal charisma. Transformational leaders revitalize and transform their organizations. Contingency theories focus on the relationship between leaders' characteristics and the context in which they lead. Least Preferred Co-worker (LPC) contingency theory says that leaders can be evaluated by how they treat the follower they like least (like judging someone by how they treat waiters and servers). A low LPC leader is likely to succeed in environments of low situational control, when impersonal direction is usually appropriate, and high situational control, when the leader has unchallenged power. In context of moderate situational control, a high LPC leader will be more effective. The notion of putting leaders in situations appropriate for their personal capabilities is leader match. Situational leadership theory defines two axes: task behavior (higher means more direction required) and relationship behavior (higher means more support required). In low task, low relationship, delegation is the best strategy. In low task, high relationship, participation. In high task, high relationship, selling. In High task, low relationship, telling. Path-goal theory says that followers like leaders who help them on their path to their goal. Leaders can adopt four styles: instrumental, supportive, participative, and achievement-oriented. Normative decision theory says that seven criteria (leader information rule, goal congruence rule, unstructured problem rule, acceptance rule, conflict rule, fairness rule, acceptance priority rule) together suggest which of five basic strategies (autocratic, autocratic with input, consultative with individuals, consultative in group, group decision) is best for a specific context. The substitutes for leadership framework describes conditions where leaders are not necessary, such as when individual characteristics of workers make leadership unnecessary, or when the jobs or organization are structured to not require leadership. Leaders can develop via 360-degree feedback, networking, coaching, mentoring, and on-the-job experience. Okay, that was the study guide. Now I will stop biting my tongue on my personal interpretations: p 504. "In view of all the attention that has been paid to the dishonest dealings of many top business leaders in recent years (e.g., most notably the late Ken Lay and his associates at Enron), it's important to note that successful leaders do, in fact, place a considerable emphasis on ethics and morality." This is the purest bullshit, special pleading of the rankest species. "oh, those guys don't count, because they were caught. real leaders are good people. How do we know that? Because leaders are good." This line of logic comes from the same batch of mental vomit as Bush's assertions that the US doesn't torture, or the idea that, "When the President does it, that means that it is not illegal." p 517. Rupert Murdoch's vision is cited as "To provide accurate access to news for people throughout the world." He may have said that, but nothing in his record suggests he's ever believed that for as long as one second. p 522. "An airline pilot leading a cockpit crew is expected to take charge and not to seek the consensus of others as she guides the plane onto the runway for a landing." In fact, the most horrible air disaster of all time happened because a pilot, impatient to take off on a foggy runway after many delays, ignored his flight engineer's concerns about another plane possibly being on a runway. 583 people died. It's certainly true that, "when the demands of the task make it clear what a leader should be doing, it is perfectly acceptable for them to focus on the task at hand." But the example cited better illustrates the risk of a leader refusing to listen to subordinates. p 529. So, can we run nations through the checklist and see if democracy ever comes out as the appropriate leadership style? p 540. Question for discussion: "What special qualities make Chan Suh [founder of Agency,com, an online advertising company] so effective as a leader?" Oh, I know. The quality of being lucky. Lots of people are bold visionaries who create companies in sectors that conventional wisdom says there is no market. It takes leadership to do that. But most of those companies fail; it takes luck to land in a sector that really does explode. Bad leadership will help you destroy a success, but good leadership is not a sufficient condition for success. Again, the premise of the question is that, because person X has success, they must be an effective leader, and to me this is a circular premise. Mon, 30 Jun 2008 05:46:15 GMT http://aufrecht.org/blog/one-entry?entry%5fid=64337 http://aufrecht.org/blog/one-entry?entry%5fid=64337 Ethnocentrism is in-group versus out-group identity; pride in the in-group; disrespect for the out-group. Ethnocentrism is necessary for maintaining group identity, and thus for maintaining groups. Every country's foreign policy discourse is ethnocentric, not just China's. Okay, I'm having trouble following his point. Looking around the room, I'm not the only one. Looking around the room, I see only two other white people; perhaps the speaker would do better to switch to Chinese? He's reading prepared remarks, and his head goes up and down from the table to eye level every second or so, and if I look directly at him, I get dizzy. The talk is grammatical but, given how much trouble he's having getting to any sort of discernible point, the speaker is ill-served by his poor pronunciation. Okay, none of the details and examples are registering in my brain, but the gist is that both the Chinese and Americans are ethnocentric. China and other countries are somewhat obsessed with the US; this is somewhat natural given the weight of the US, but many countries magnify that perceived weight. For example, there is a slogan that "the Chinese-American relationship is the weightiest of the weightiest" (it sounds better in Chinese). A sign of progress is that this slogan is no longer used. China's foreign policy elite were thrilled after good Clinton/Zhang Zemin relations, but the Belgrade embassy bombing was very bad for relations. Many Chinese policy elite—challenge from the audience after the speaker names a Chinese academic: what makes him an elite? Does Deng Xiaoping listen to him? The tone in the rooms starts to turn a bit impatient. The speaker thinks the crowd is hostile because of his position; personally, I can't really figure out what his position is in order to judge it. Chinese policy elites and newspapers give excess weight to the US; Kissinger and Brzezinski get quoted regularly and the US dominates "foreign"-oriented Chinese newspapers. Some article titles, loosely translated: "Who else can take the ring after the inevitable decline of the United States". One academic's recent article is "Let's compete against political ideologies with the west." He was explicitly denying there is any universal ideology among men. "China should try to slow down the inevitable decline of the United States." "China's moral hegemony will sustain while the US immoral hegemony will not sustain." An outburst from the audience as an academic is named: "He's not an elite. he's my friend actually" Obsession with the US will be counterproductive to a more dynamic Chinese foreign policy. Some signs of progress in shedding US obsession. The weight of the US in China's interests has declined. China cannot always use the US perspective on things, human rights, development, etc. Q: You're saying that China's making its own policy based on its own interest. That's simple; why do you have to spend so much time working through this? What is your sample size? What is your hypothesis? How do you test it? A: (he's talking but I don't follow what he's saying or how it relates to the question.) I'm not taking a quantitative approach. How many articles? Fifty, and more than a hundred pieces .... Q: Among "elites", have you found anyone promoting universal rights, individual human rights? (interjection from another person at the table: What universal rights? US or Chinese?) A: Because of the Chinese political system, talking about universal rights must be "fuzzy". Q: Psychologists use experiments, not guesswork. Your sampling could be subject to selection bias. How do you define the foreign policy elite? Look at all their writing, speeches, comments, and then decide what are the dominant themes. (that reminds me of this.) A: Yes, in psychology you can do experiment, but not in foreign policy. You can't do a Cuban Missile Crisis experiment. ... Nietzsche, foucault, ... a lot of things can't be quantified. Interjection: you could use one journal back to 1997 or earlier and study all the words and issues. Q: Many African-Americans and Hispanics still say in surveys that they are inferior to whites. ... A ... Q: where is Chinese foreign policy formulated? At the X school, or the "muliao"? A: It's far more open than any time before; Zhang Zemin initiated more openness. Q: There is a theory that national perception and interest are part of the context of foreign policy. But the elite groups actually express foreign policy. Q: Who and where to watch for changes in foreign policy? A: Read journals, but it's mostly private internal discussions. I can't name who I think are the most influential; I have a list but I can't tell you. Q: At X university where I was for some time, perhaps half of students and professors' research focus was on US domestic politics or Sino-US relations. Q: What's the percentage of Chinese elite have a strong version of ethnocentrism? A maybe 30%. Fri, 27 Jun 2008 06:39:11 GMT http://aufrecht.org/blog/one-entry?entry%5fid=61461 http://aufrecht.org/blog/one-entry?entry%5fid=61461 I wrote in March about the Democratic candidates for president that "I can visualize any of them as an excellent president and I can visualize (and have seen) all three of them disappoint." I wish the future weren't so easy to predict. Obama disappointed in a big way this week with his FISA cave. Sigh. Some excerpts of what H.R. 6304 does: ... permits the government to conduct mass, untargeted surveillance of all communications coming into and out of the United States ... ... explicitly permit[s] the government to continue surveillance programs even if the application is denied by the court. The government has the authority to wiretap through the entire appeals process, and then keep and use whatever it gathered in the meantime. ...ensures the dismissal of all cases pending against the telecommunication companies that facilitated the warrantless wiretapping programs over the last 7 years. Sun, 22 Jun 2008 08:26:45 GMT http://aufrecht.org/blog/one-entry?entry%5fid=59849 http://aufrecht.org/blog/one-entry?entry%5fid=59849 In reaction to the huge response to their last event, SPMI's schedule is blossoming with events. Another full room today (A few more ang moh's here today. Apparently we're all doing the shaved head thing now) for "Collaborating with the Enemy", by Steven Blais of IIL. This event is S$10 for SPMI members, including a very tasty Indian Vegetarian meal (places in the world that have to deal with halal and other religious requirements tend to be very kind to vegetarians as a bonus. Some sort of drawing with a prize over $1000 is announced, which gets a loud murmur going as people dig for their business cards. Given that S$10 each probably doesn't cover catered meals plus rental, IIL must expect to drum up a lot of business here. Joel's executive summary: Projects must solve problems. Problems come from business. Business analyst, project manager, and system analyst are distinct and mutually exclusive roles. The business analyst role is responsible for ensuring the project solves the problem. The rest of this post is my paraphrase of the speaker unless otherwise noted. The great gap between project managers and those people who want our services. We have to bring in projects that are on time, on budget, and have all the features we promised. And what keeps us from doing this? The customers! When I started they didn't have this gap, they didn't have users. My first system was the automated payroll for the Navy. Punchcards, line printer. Chesty Puller: "I don't really understand this stuff; we have a printer that can print 1400 lines per minute; who can read that?" Not much user interface, the users worked with us, it was fine. The project manager: what are your requirements? The business person: I have a problem. You're the IT, you fix it. What are requirements? I have a problem with the annuities system. PM: Give me some requirements B: Well etc etc PM: (to self) this is great, I can use that new java framework and ... Joel's note: it doesn't seem like hilarity is going to ensue. Summary: the project manager and business person have different goals, contexts, and languages. Process-oriented business versus project-oriented project management. Business teams are together for years; project teams may last two months. Anecdote about delivering a computer system to which the user responds, "it doesn't feel good." After many weeks, this was articulated into how it looks, how the mouse moves across the screen. Standard personalities for technical people: INTJ (that sounds familiar. Now can we get the stereotypical FIRO-Bs?). For business people: ESFP. How does the gap affect the project? changes, delays, scope creep, cost overruns. What tools help deal with this? change management, product acceptance. Joel's note: Hmm, agile techniques are one way to try and deal with this structural problem. I wonder if he'll talk about them, or some other approaches? Here's some thinking on integrating Agile and PMBOK. I won an award 35 years ago for a US Navy project. On time, under budget, delivered everything promised, never had a defect reported since delivery. Of course, it was never used, and we knew it would never be used before we started working on it. Best project I ever did, because there were no users to mess it up. The point is that a successful project is not the same thing as a successful business. Projects are tactical, not strategic. Strategic business people should not be involved in projects. But now there's a gap between the business needs and the project. Who fills the gap? The PMO? No, it's not their business either. Let's fill the gap. Organizations have a role for that, whether they label it or not: business analyst. Most of you PMs also do that role. The business analyst's job is to ensure that the project produces a product that solves the problem. The business analyst is a bridge. As a consultant, I'll be working with a company to improve their project management, and I'll ask, what do you see the role of the business analyst as? And they say, they're a bridge between technical and business. Actually, they are a bridge between problem and solution, which may or may not be technology. The definition of the solution is the requirements. The business analyst establishes the bridge and the project manager gets us across the bridge. In SCRUM we call them the product owner. (Ding! Agile mention. Quick sidenote: I don't want to be mistaken for an Agile cheerleader. My own experiences with Agile are mixed. Whether or not one or more Agile methods is a good solution, they are at least addressing the right problem, which is basically this same gap he's talking about.) Business Analyst is a role: they define the real business problem, completely and accurately; and "maintains full communication between stakeholders with the problem and solution team". At IBM we weren't allowed to have problems, only challenges. The business analyst should ask, how will you know that we've solved your problem? If there isn't an answer, there isn't a problem. When we have that, we have acceptance criteria, a contract. The issue is that many times, the business doesn't know their real problem. Incidentally this happens well before we have a project. If customers get more features, it's scope creep. If IT throws in some extra things, it's gold-plating. Notice who's naming these things. Incidentally, this guy is a very good speaker, even though he's got powerpoint in the background. I think he could spike 80% of his slides, leaving only a few diagrams, and be better for it. But perhaps the other, wordier slides, which he generally ignores, are helping the readers? Anyway, he's very animated, vivid; you can see the punchlines coming but that just makes it more intimate. Users don't have requirements; they don't know what's possible. They develop requirements together with the technical team. It's not if the requirements change, it's when. Plan for that evolution and you won't have creep. Halting scope creep won't help if the product doesn't solve the problem, e.g., have the right scope; if the product doesn't solve the problem, why are you making it? And, scope can't creep unless somebody agrees. It's up to the PM to say no to anything that doesn't solve the problem. Um. It feels like there's some sleight of hand here. How can you predefine the scope, given that we've agreed that it's impossible to understand the requirements before you start? I'm not convinced that scope exactly equals problem. A need is not a problem. Why do you need it? PM has conflict of interest. PM defines the project she's responsible for, and may push for a better project rather than a better solution. The business has a conflict of interest: it is not objective about the problem or solution. Businesses rarely do due diligence over the project: creating a charter, determining ROI, etc. The business analyst starts before the project and ends after the project. The business analyst communicates changes back and forth between the business and the project. After project close, the business analyst is still confirming that the delivered product solves the problem. "If you have a solution that does not create at least three new problems, you have the wrong solution." If you are a PM who is also a business analyst, skip the party, go down and have just one Singapore Sling with the project team, then go back and see if the product works in production. What's the difference between business analysts, project managers, and system analysts? They all do the same functions, (plan, manage risk, work with stakeholders, requirements, test, estimate, impact analysis, evaluate alternatives). But they all do them differently, for different people. BA does acceptance tests; PM tests project plan; SA tests integration. How to test the project plan? The plan breaks everything down into work tasks. Each task has an input and an output. You test the plan by ensuring that all inputs and outputs are used. You test it by laying out the tasks with your team (not with MS Project, but with the actual people). BA focus is business; PM focus is project; SA focus is technical. It is very difficult for one person to do all three roles, especially if they aren't trained. How many of you grew up and went to school and said, I want to be a project manager. We're almost all accidental project managers. There are people who grow up to be systems analysts, go to school for that. Hopefully some day there will be schools for PMs, fraternities, etc. These three roles call for different personalities, different talents. BA to customer: Is what you are asking for going to solve your problem? My job isn't to build something, it's to solve your problem. (Side note because he said something about dodgeball: this is cute but raises the disturbing question: why would you pay three dollars to see the equator?) How to wear two hats: As the PM, focus on the team. As the BA, don't let project noise (deadlines, etc) influence your relationship with stakeholders. I literally had different hats that I switched back and forth depending on the work I was doing. First, make sure you understand what the role of the business analyst is. Keep the roles separate. Write the requirements as a BA; come back as a PM and pretend somebody else wrote the requirements. about ten people just got up and left simultaneously. It's 8:35; are they all going to catch a bus, or like CEOs giving themselves raises, did they just realize that they could leave? The speaker is good but it's true the crowd (myself included) has been drifting for a few minutes. An abrupt ending, and only one question. I think he could have wrapped up ~8 minutes earlier and had 10 minutes of good questions. Q: Who has authority? A: The project manager has authority and accountability for the project, the BA for the business. Thu, 19 Jun 2008 09:55:08 GMT http://aufrecht.org/blog/one-entry?entry%5fid=59815 http://aufrecht.org/blog/one-entry?entry%5fid=59815 A lecture from Shaukat Aziz, former Prime Minister of Pakistan. Joel's note: The Boston Globe seems to think he's one of the good guys. The following notes are my paraphrase of the speaker unless otherwise noted. "Think beyond and outside the box, and try to meet the new challenges with vigor. ... The only constant in life today, ladies and gentlemen, is change. You must adapt to change. ... Staying still is not the answer." Apparently this will be an all-platitudes speech? Today's topic was chosen and approved by Dean Mahbubani. Perhaps he thought that as a survivor of several assassination attempts I would be qualified to speak ... Terrorism is global. With the recent upsurge in terrorism—clearly it has increased. If you try to travel today, it is a hassle. If your name is Muhammad .... This is done because not everybody knows who you are and there's a risk that if they let the old person in, they will cause trouble. People link terrorism with a particular region or religion, Islam, but this is not historically the case. In my view, one word can describe most, not all, of the causes: "deprivation". Joel's note: Hm. Let's see what a cursory literature search says. Club de Madrid says ... well, they certainly didn't come down to one word. "Poverty per se is not a direct cause of terrorism." The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism, Robert A. Pape, U Chicago : "this study collects [188] terrorist attacks worldwide from 1980 to 2001. ... This study shows that suicide terrorism follows a strategic logic, one specifically designed to coerce modern liberal democracies to make significant territorial concessions. Moreover, over the past two decades, suicide terrorism hasbeen rising largely because terrorists have learned that it pays. Meanwhile back to the speaker, who has said essentially nothing notable. "If you treat people with respect, they'll be less prone to getting into extreme behavior. More importantly, we must give people a voice. ... At the end of the day, if people have a voice, can within certain norms express their views .... Give people a level playing field and a sense of hope and you will see ... this will bring the temperature down. It has to happen, because there are many fires burning around the world ...." "Here the role of the media in civil society is critical. The media ... if there is a message that, see how destructive this is, it will help in the hearts and minds of people." Q: (from Dean Mahbubani) We both lived in New York, in fact in the same apartment, St James Tower. A: but your apartment was twice as big. Q: But your salary was more than twice as much. A: That's true. Q: How do we change the American conception of Islam? A: If you see what goes through their minds, 9/11 and 7/7, these are not minor incidents. The whole country was shaken up. ... Make people aware that the acts of a few angry people do not represent ... Q: So Pakistan decided to side with the US. We hear that Pakistan is signing deals with the people it was fighting against. Is this a good idea? A: We joined the coalition against terrorism because terrorism is bad [my paraphrase]. If a group is willing to talk, I think that is the right way to go. The more people you can get back to a normal life, you have gained. Q: Assassination of Bhutto discouraged good men and women. to some, terrorists are merely freedom fighters. Can you comment on that? A: Bhutto's death was a national and global tragedy. Every life is precious. Q: [A regular attendee at these seminars reads from two pages of notes until he is cut off firmly. No idea what his point or question was. He started with "Singapore has found racial harmony with four races and four religious beliefs living together." Aziz responded that the questioner had an incorrect view of Islam? Q: Is Islam being used as a force multiplier, or is the root cause relative (not absolute) deprivation? Is there a need to control radical madrassas? A: Madrassas are religious schools. I was asked to open a school; they had O-levels and were going to A-levels, they had proper computer classes. In Pakistan, the madrassas we have are clearly performing a role. There may be a few, who are, not as an institution but with individual teachers promoting extremism. Largely they are helping people memorize the Koran and so forth, and also free lodge and board for children who need education. Free books. The curriculum is being broad-based; those who are strictly in religious teaching, no need to be defensive about them, this is an important function in any society. To your first part, there may be affluent people going into terrorism, but they can still be deprived. They may be living in a country where a dispute is festering for ages. The dean is getting very impatient with long-winded questions. A: The question is on ISI and its links to uh. Let me say that ISI is professional and respected. They pursue the national interest. The Taliban, the people in Afghanistan ... the rest of the world together recruited young people to fight the Soviet Union. ... Pakistan is very clear that we do not allow on our soil activities that are prejudicial to our interests or any other nation's. The Taliban is an Afghan government. We have 3 million refugees in Pakistan, Afghan will not take them back. We would like resettlement, more aid (which is happening in the Paris conference), a concerted effort against drugs. Q: Karzai threatened to send troops to Pakistan after a jail break? do you think he's serious? A: Pakistan has always said that a strong, stable Afghanistan is good for the region. Q: in the west, there's a myth that the religious reasons for terrorism are more important. Is that true? A: Faith does play a part, but it's only part. Islam as a faith doesn't promote violence. There are many attacks outside the Islamic world. Q: When you were prime minister, what did you do to improve the quality of life of the people and deprive people of the financing for the terrorism? A: Great economic growth in Pakistan. Pakistan's per capita GDP is much greater than India. For the last several years, 7.5 percent growth, 5.5 percent this year. In terms of quality of life, reduction of poverty .... In terms of financing, it's a global effort. Q: What is the greatest cause of deprivation that is leading to terrorism and what can we do? A: It's hard but I'll give you a few. Lack of people having rights, lack of income, feeling of hopelessness, ... Like many of these seminars featuring politicians, the informational content of the seminar is very close to nil. The value in attending is in getting a sense of the personality of the speaker. Thu, 19 Jun 2008 06:41:20 GMT http://aufrecht.org/blog/one-entry?entry%5fid=59516 http://aufrecht.org/blog/one-entry?entry%5fid=59516 Impact Analysis What would have happened to those receiving intervention if they had not received the intervention? In scientific terms, you need a control group. Remember that a control group is not a population that remains unchanged. A control group is a population that is subject to everything the target group is subject to except the intended intervention. The important thing to know here is that there are many, many ways to end up with useless data, as this Economist article about randomized evaluations discusses. A randomized study showed that giving away mosquito nets for free was far more effective that charging anything. You might conclude that the trial showed that they should always be given away. Yet it turns out that millions of nets were already in use in the part of Kenya where the field trial took place, so their value was known. The experiment guaranteed supplies, so it did not test the assertion that you need to charge something to encourage reliable suppliers. And the recipients were pregnant women, whereas the point of giving bednets away is to provide anti-malaria treatment universally. The evidence from western Kenya was clear. But it hardly settled the question of whether the government should give bednets away across the country. As an aside, it seems like we could very profitably spend a few weeks on the scientific method directly, rather than orbiting it with alternate language. Experiments The best experiment possible: fully blind, randomized, large sample size, repeated. Since this is rarely possible in economics and social science, especially at larger scales such as national development, we can use alternative methods: natural experiment. For example, when different states in the US which are otherwise similar adopt different policies. An example of a natural experiment occurred in Helena, Montana during the period from June 2002 to December 2002 when a smoking ban was in effect in all public spaces in Helena including bars and restaurants. Helena is geographically isolated and served by only one hospital. It was observed that the rate of heart attacks dropped by 60% while the smoking ban was in effect.—Wikipedia matching statistical equated controls non-experiments Wed, 18 Jun 2008 00:19:57 GMT http://aufrecht.org/blog/one-entry?entry%5fid=59068 http://aufrecht.org/blog/one-entry?entry%5fid=59068 The instructor apologizes for putting Mao in a list with Stalin and Hitler in a previous lecture. I certainly think, based on my understanding of history, that by many plausible definitions of the set of "most prolifically evil dictators of the 20th century", Mao is a solid member (scholars actually put him at the top of the democide league table). Where's my apology for taking him out of the list? The instructor further notes that anyone who thinks that Hitler, Mao, et al were "born evil" is missing the point of the class. Judging from remarks in this and previous classes, those of us who are not in the habit of writing and forwarding angry emails are missing out on a substantial portion of discourse for this class. Perspective: when I get somewhat frustrated with the challenges of this course and fantasize about nasty feedback (example: instructor: "students who are not faring well in terms of points right now should ..." me: "is there a way for us to know how we are faring in terms of points right now?" instructor: "no, but there will be soon" Oh good, it's the final session of class for the semester and the only information about our performance is a single paper that has been returned.) I find it helpful to read things like this, which illustrate how you can easily out yourself as an asshole to be ignored. Then I take a deep breath and pet my dog. Mon, 16 Jun 2008 05:11:36 GMT