Hindsight on the J.D. Drew signing

Dodger fans will be interested to learn that Drew is projected to win more games than Beltre in the next five years, and at a substantial discount. (29.1 wins vs 28.2; $40mil vs $57mil). ¹

Drew was worth 17.7 wins and Beltre, 15.9. So those projections were … relatively correct but absolutely not so good? The Mariners paid for Beltre’s theoretical peak, ages 26 to 30, and they still got a decent deal. But Beltre resumed his Hall-of-Fame-level production immediately after: the best of his five Mariner years was not as good as the worst of his next five years, 2010–2014, ages 31 to 35.